Tips Are For Waiters

Two stocks

I hold neither but both Priceline (PCLN) and Starrent (STAR) look pretty good here.  Priceline is consolidating after breaking out and Starrent looks like it is basing and can be a longer term winner based on its fundamentals.  I would keep my eyes on both. 

May 22nd, 2008 Posted by Nusair | Stocks: Long | Submit a comment

Holding still

Nothing new to add here.  Market looks weak so go out and enjoy your real life for now.  There will be better opportunities in the future so why waste time looking at your screens now.  I do not think this market is done on the downside.  If anything we may be in a prolonged period of weakness.  You do not need to fight this trend.  Just stay out of the way.  The worst thing you can do here is double down or average in.  If you are already stuck in a ridiculously painful situation, then sell some of it to relive stress.  It will give you renewed energy which you can use to liquidate the rest of the position over the next few weeks.

March 6th, 2008 Posted by Nusair | Commentary: General | Submit a comment

Not written in a while

Not that anyone is looking here, but I thought I might add my two cents in regarding this market.  In looking at it recently, I feel that there is some more to go on the downside, maybe a lot more.  I would stay on the sidelines if you are not comfortable being short.  Stocks look cheap right now but never try to catch a falling knife.  Wait for things to stabilize and you will get lots of time and even more opportunities.  Hang tight for now, and hold on to that wallet.

January 27th, 2008 Posted by Nusair | Uncategorized | Submit a comment

Liquidating

I am selling off the last few shares of SPWR I have as I think this low volume bounce is going to yeild to lower prices.  I am currently in 100% cash and am likely to stay that way till i resolve some outside issues.  Sorry that i have not written as i have been preoccupied.  I can’t say that I know when I am going to come back to writing regularly but will let you know wen I know.  The markets do not look too hot either so it may be best that i stay away for now.  For those of you that would like to keep in touch more often, please email me at alibawla@gmail.com 

March 13th, 2007 Posted by Nusair | Uncategorized | 88 comments

A Changed Market

Yesterday this market showed the bulls the cost of complacency.  From an opening gap lower, the market never recovered and by day’s end, all the major indices were below their 50dma on very high volume.  This was probably the opening salvo in what looks to be a difficult battle ahead for the bulls.  Yesterday’s drop showed us that there has been a change in character and we should take heed.  Like i always say, if you are confused about the direction then let the market tell you which way it wants to go.  In this case, i would stay on the sidelines and let the market play itself out over the next couple of days. 

If you are still heavily invested, then I believe that you are doing yourself a tremendous disservice.  You should be lightening up today and raising cash.  Right now, it is all about capital preservation.  If this market continues upward and onto new highs, you can always add back the exposure, but if this market continues lower, then your portfolio will sink like a stone. 

If you are lightly invested, then I would steer clear of any new buys and wait for this market to settle down before commiting any new capital. 

Personally, i was stopped out of a couple of positions yesterday including Apple (AAPL), and Suntech (STP).  I now only have a small position in ICE and a medium size position in SPWR.  I also own puts with SPWR so that position is fairly well hedged.  My portfolio is ready for any downside that this market might bring.  Is yours?

February 28th, 2007 Posted by Nusair | Commentary: General | 10 comments

Tough Sledding

It is rough out there today and the best thing anyone can say at this point is that you need to remain objective in this selloff.  If you got caught owning a large position in a stock that is being thrashed, you need to be honest with yourself and get rid of some so that the angst that you feel begins to go away.  If your stock is breaking below technical levels and manages to close that way, then you need to take a hard look at the position to see if it needs to still be in your portfolio.  Today is bad but remember that tomorrow could bring more of the same so stick by your rules of engagement.  My own personal ones that apply here are that you do not need to be a hero today so do not go out and defend a holding by buying more.  Stay patient and honor those stops on a closing basis.  If any of my holdings fall below key technical levels then either I cut it by the close or at least buy puts against it to protect myself on the downside.  I said this in the earlier post but I have to say it again, protect your capital.  There will be lots of days for you to make up what you may have lost today, but you have to stick around in order to get there.  Do not make any bone headed “all or none” moves today.

Although none of my stocks are currently breaching their 50dma, two are sitting right above so i am watching them closely.  Days like today remind me of why i buy puts on my largest holdings.  They come in handy on days like today when you need your nerves to be very steady.  There is a lot of red on the street today and with all the profits to protect, i am not sure this downdraft is going to stop here.  Live to fight another day.

February 27th, 2007 Posted by Nusair | Commentary: General | 7 comments